Returned to the one good pass-odds bet with the following betting scheme: $5 pass then $20 odds to start the betting. If a shooter fails to make at least one point, then up one unit on the odds bet and keep doing this negative progression on consecutive losses until get a point winner. When get a win on the point, return to $20 odds. Overall you will lose with time. Field bets offer the player a 44.4% chance of winning. If you have noticed 3 non-field bets pass in a row and then you decide to bet on the field, your chances of winning will go up. Under these circumstances, your chances of losing are reduced to 9.5%. By taking the maximum odds bet every time you make a pass or don't pass bet, you maximize your winning potential and lower the house edge on your overall wager. Making an odds bet after a pass bet is betting that the point will be thrown before a 7. The odds bet pays 2 to 1 on points of 4 and 10, 3 to 2 on a 5 and 9, and 6 to 5 on a 6 and 8. If you’re looking for an hour of mindless gambling fun, head to the craps table. Ignore the shouting and the insider lingo and the complex side-bets. Just wait for a new roller to take the dice and then put $10 down on the “PASS LINE.” That’s all you have to remember: “PASS LINE.” If the roller gets a 7 or 11, you win. You can use probability to figure out the odds of winning and losing in the popular casino dice game of craps. In the game of craps, on your first roll (called the come out roll), three outcomes are possible: Natural: Rolling a total of 7 or 11 — automatically wins. Craps: Rolling a total of 2, 3, or 12 — automatically loses.

With only a little searching on the internet, you’ll find pages that claim to have “solved” craps.

You’ll also find sites promising to teach you how to win “consistently” at craps.

They claim that you can make profits on a regular basis by shooting dice and betting on other shooters.

This isn’t one of those pages.

That’s because I’m not a liar.

Here’s the truth about how to win at real money craps almost every time you play.

Winning Craps Systems

I can tell you where to find the winning craps systems. They’re right next to the unicorns in the zoo and the mermaids in the aquarium.

How do craps systems work?

They use a combination of bets that are meant to hedge against losses. They also usually involve raising and lowering the size of your bets based on what’s happened on previous rolls and previous bets.

Often, they try to capitalize on hot and cold streaks.

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Here’s the problem:

Some of those negative numbers are bigger than others, but they’re all negative.

And if you double or triple those bets because of something that happened on a previous bet, you still have a negative number.

And yes, you will see winning and losing streaks at the craps table.

The problem is that you have no way to predict when these winning and losing streaks will begin or end. They’re only available in hindsight.

The nature of gambling games – craps especially – is to be streaky.

But a streak can win or end at any time.

Here Are 10 Easy Steps to Beat Craps – Yeah, Right

I don’t have a problem with writers offering tips for how to beat craps. Heck, I offer tips for craps players in some of my posts, too. My problem is the overselling of these tips.

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But heck, even that’s not too bad.

What’s really bad are people who take your money in exchange for some kind of unbeatable craps system. These craps systems are NOT unbeatable. In fact, in the long run, they can’t win.

You can’t defeat the math at the craps table by combining various bets at the table. There are NO craps bets with a positive expectation. The closest you can get is a bet called the odds bet which has no house edge at all.

But just because that bet is a break-even bet doesn’t mean it can help you get an edge at the other bets. In fact, you’re not able to place an odds bet unless you’ve placed a pass bet first, which has a house edge.

But there’s one possible exception to this…

Taking the Odds Bet on Someone Else’s Bet

I read a book by Frank Scoblete where he suggested becoming the “odds man.” I haven’t tried this in a casino, so I don’t know if it’s a viable strategy or not. I do know that it won’t get you an edge over the casino.

Here’s how it works:

You find a craps player who’s betting the pass line or the don’t pass line – but who isn’t taking or placing odds.

You ask that player if you can make odds bets on his bets.

If the casino allows this, and if the other player allows this, you can place or take odds without having to make the negative expectation bet that precedes the odds bet.

But this still doesn’t give you an edge.

The odds bet is, in the long run, a break-even proposition.

There’s a big difference between breaking even and making a profit. Sure, in the short run, you might see a quick profit, but over enough time, this strategy is just a break-even strategy.

A break-even strategy is far better than a losing strategy. I suppose if you take advantage of some comp drinks, it might even be considered marginally profitable.

Why Does the House Have a Mathematical Edge in Craps?

The mathematical edge in craps resembles the mathematical edge for every other casino game. It’s just a function of offering bets that pay off at less than the odds of winning.

The easiest example to understand is the even money bet.

Most people realize that if you place an even money bet and have a 50% probability of winning that bet, you’ll break even in the long run. By definition, a 50% probability of winning means you’ll win as often as you lose.

And since even money means you’re betting the same amount you’ll win, you’ll eventually see results close to a net loss or win of $0, regardless of the size of your bets.

But you don’t have a 50% probability of winning the even money bets in craps. The probability of winning an even money bet in craps is always slightly less than 50%.

In this case, the probability of winning the pass line bet is 49.3%, which is close to 50%, but it still gives the casino an edge. The casino will win this bet 50.7% of the time.

In the long run, you can’t win with those odds.

And that’s arguable the best bet at the table. (The probability of winning the don’t pass bet is higher by 5/100 of a percent, but that’s such a small number that it’s not especially interesting.

What if I Hedge My Bets?

Hedging your bets doesn’t work. The idea is that you bet on one outcome, but you also place a bet on another outcome that will compensate for when your initial bet loses.

This sounds good in theory, but it doesn’t work in the long run for one simple reason:

Your original bet AND your hedge both have a house edge.

In other words, you’re just adding one negative expectation bet with another hoping to get a positive expectation.

But that’s not how negative numbers work.

Add any set of negative numbers together, and you’ll get a negative sum.

Okay, But What if You Could Control the Outcome of the Die Rolls?

The biggest potential I see for beating craps is learning how to exert some control over the outcome of the die rolls. The idea is that by holding the dice in a specific position (“setting the dice”), and then by throwing the dice without a lot of force (“a controlled throw”), you can reduce the probability of losing by enough to shift the already low house edge in favor of the bettor.

Is this possible?

Frank Scoblete thinks so, but he suggests a lot of hare-brained strategies, so I don’t lend him much credence.

But I’ve also seen Michael Shackleford say that he’s seen some pretty impressive demonstrations, and I have a lot of respect for him.

Do I think it’s practical to become a controlled dice shooter?

Let’s talk about what that would involve in the next section.

What Would It Take to Become a Controlled Shooter?

I’ve seen being a controlled shooter called different things. Scoblete calls such shooters “rhythmic rollers.” I’ve also seen them called “dice setters.”

The verbs used to describe this approach varies, too. I’ve seen it called “controlled shooting” or “dice setting” more often than anything else.

The idea is to learn how to roll the dice well enough that you can reduce the odds of rolling a 7 by a significant enough margin that you flip the odds from favoring the house to where they favor the bettor. (This assumes that you’re betting the pass line, of course.)

The first thing you would need to do to learn how to set dice is to find an instructional video, a book, or a coach. Those aren’t hard to find, but I wouldn’t spend a lot of money on such a thing.

The next thing you’ll need is somewhere to practice. This includes having a realistic craps table with similar dimensions to what you’d find in an actual casino. It also includes having room for that craps table.

Then you need to practice what you’ve learned from the video, book, or coach on that table.

Finally, you’ll need to track your results. This is where the rubber hits the road. To be statistically sure of how well you’re affecting the odds, you’ll need at least 1000 trials.

And the more trials you record, the more accurate your accounting of your skill at dice throwing will be.

One more thing…

I suspect that dice control might be like other feats of athleticism or skill. Some people just might not have a knack for it. It’s possible that some people just might be able to learn how to do it, even if it is possible, and even if they do practice.

95% of poker players lose money in the long run. This means that only 5% get an edge.

My guess is that a similar percentage of dice shooters have the knack for controlling the dice. It might even be a smaller number than that.

Conclusion

Craps is a great game, and I love it. And you can win a fortune playing craps in almost no time at all.

But the idea that you win at craps consistently or “almost every time you play” is ludicrous.

If the casinos thought you had a way to beat craps, they’d back you off the game – just like they do with card counters.

When’s the last time you saw the casino tell a craps player he’s too skilled?

Yeah, me neither.

Beginning gamblers often shy away from the craps table because the game looks complicated. It’s actually easy to play craps because the math keeps everyone honest. A rule of thumb to live by in any casino game is “the more they pay the less likely you are to win the bet”. Hence, there is no shame and a lot of wisdom in playing a conservative craps strategy. Here is a look at 12 secrets every craps player should learn to improve their game.

1. Why are Casino Dice Special?

Casinos use transparent dice because they hide no flaws. Opaque dice can be manufactured to varying standards and can hide balancing flaws. Unbalanced dice do not roll randomly.

And casinos replace their dice often. Casino dice have machine-tooled straight edges. These edges eventually wear down, accumulating imperfections. Imperfections add bias to rolls.

Casino dice are larger and straighter than board gaming dice because players must throw the dice so far on a craps table. The felt top and lining help the dice bounce more randomly than a smooth table top does.

So while you may be practicing your die throws at home, you’re not going to get the same action as at a casino, especially if you never replace your practice dice.

2. How the 5-Count System Works

Since 1994 craps players have debated whether the Captain’s 5-Count system is legit. This system tells you when to bet on a shooter other than yourself. Here are the 5 counts:

• Any point on the Come Out roll roll.
• Any good roll after the 1^st Count roll.
• Any good roll after the 2^nd Count roll.
• Any good roll after the 3^rd Count roll.
• The first point rolled after the 4^th Count roll.

You begin placing low bets on the shooter after he hits his 5^th Count roll. If he never gets there then you never bet on that shooter. Never bet big on another shooter.

The 5-Count method reduces the number and size of bets you place on other shooters, thus reducing your overall risk. The downside of using the 5-Count method is that you watch more than play, but betting on a drunk guy to throw dice the way you want is a pretty risky bet.

3. You Can Stop the Game for a Dispute

Sometimes the dice roll funny, or maybe you’re not sure you were paid correctly. Before the dice are thrown again, if you are certain something is wrong, you can stop the game. You can ask the dealers to recount or reconsider or, if you disagree with their decisions, ask to speak to the pit boss. This is an option of last resort when you are sure you are right. Casinos want to keep the table in play and will work to resolve disputes quickly but they’ll also ask troublesome or argumentative players to leave.

Stopping play is a mix of courtesy, privilege, and right. It’s not a gambling strategy, at least not a winning one.

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4. The More Bets You Place the Worse Your Chances of Winning

This is true in any table game, but some craps players love to place multiple bets. You’re taking on more risk, not spreading the risk, when you place several bets at the same time.

5. Know the Die Roll Probabilities

In a completely random game the chances of any given number on either die being rolled is 1 in 6. The chance of rolling any combination of numbers on the dice is 1 in 36. This “1 in 36” number can mislead you. There are only 11 possible values (2 through 12) that you can roll.

“7” is the most frequent die roll combination. There are 6 ways to roll a “7”. Some writers say there are three ways to roll a “7”: 1 and 6, 2 and 5, or 3 and 4. However, the math has to account for each die separately; hence, the probability of rolling a “7” in craps is 1 in 6.

In declining order of probability, the possible combinations in craps are:

• 7 (1 in 6)
• 6 or 8 (5 in 36)
• 5 or 9 (4 in 36)
• 4 or 10 (3 in 36)
• 3 or 11 (2 in 36)
• 2 or 12 (1 in 36)

6. The “Pass” Bet is More Likely to Pay on Come Out than the “Don’t Pass” Bet

Both Pass and Don’t Pass pay even money so you can bet either way. Still, when you look at the probability table above, the shooter has 8 chances in 36 of rolling 7 or 11 on the Come Out roll and 3 chances in 36 of rolling a 2 or 3. If you are just hoping to win on the Come Out roll, go with the “Pass” bet.

7. The 6 and 8 Points Pay the Most over Time

The 6:5 odds for the 6 and 8 points are the worst and the 2:1 odds for the 4 and 10 points are the best. But the probabilities are best for the 6 and 8 and worst for the 4 and 10.

The premium on a 6:5 payoff for 6 or 8 is 20% over your bet. The premium on a 3:2 payoff for a 5 or 9 is 50% of your bet. The premium on a 2:1 payoff for a 4 or 10 is 100% of your bet. In a perfect distribution of 36 die rolls your expected total premiums are:

• 5 * 20% = 100% (betting on 6 or 8)
• 4 * 50% = 200% (betting on 5 or 9)
• 3 * 100% = 300% (betting on 4 or 10)

Although the 300% ROI for 4/10 looks great there is a slight edge for 6/8 bettors. Because you are losing all those other bets, you lose the least amount of money with the 6/8 points. Note also that multiplying (bets + premiums) by expected wins across the board results in a 600% return. The distribution with the fewest losses is the way to bet.

8. The More Complicated Your Strategy the More Risk You Take

The more you have to think about where your money goes, the odds and probabilities, and when you can bet, the more likely you will make a mistake. High risk strategies pay off less often than low risk strategies. Most experts agree that the long, slow game works best in craps, especially for non-expert players. Keep your money on the Pass Line until you’re way ahead.

9. Avoid Hedge Bets

Ignore dealer calls for “any craps” bets. Your expected return declines your risk grows when you hedge bets. “Any craps” betting is a bet on a bet. This just adds conditions to your Pass Line bet. The strategic way to gamble is to minimize risk while maximizing potential return on bet. The house will drain your bankroll any way it can and hedge bets are a favored gimmick.

10. Use the Tower of Hanoi Method to Manage Your Betting

The Tower of Hanoi is a math puzzle about moving stacks of disks among three pegs. You can never place a disk on a smaller disk. The Tower of Hanoi rule assumes you are willing to lose everything in your bankroll. To conserve your money and manage risk, begin by making minimum bets. Increase your bets only when your bankroll is above its starting value.

Many craps players only risk 5% of their stakes on any bet. The 5% method works well enough but you’ll eventually run into the table minimum. The Tower of Hanoi method starts with the minimum bet as a floor, not 5%. As long as your bankroll is growing you can increase your bets toward the table maximum.

11. Never Return to Your Starting Stake

Let’s say your betting strategies have paid off enough that you have doubled your money. Once you reach that goal you should set a new floor. Walk away from the table if your stake drops to 150% of your original bankroll. This way you walk away a winner.

But there is another reason to do this. If you play any game too long you become tired, especially if you have been drinking. Your decision-making suffers when you are tired. Take “winner’s breaks” as often as possible so that you can give your brain a chance to rest.

12. The House Edge is not Determined by the Odds

Some gamblers assume the house loses more money on the basis of the odds on a given bet. It doesn’t work that way. The game is designed to pay about the same over time on any basic bet but to dilute your return with extra bets. In other words, the house edge is determined by the math behind the game. The odds are just what they are willing to pay you to maintain that edge over time.

Conclusion

Craps is a fine game for any gambler who enjoys taking risks, but you do need to understand the game. Fortunately, craps is designed for players of all experience levels. You don’t have to play all the different types of bets. And isn’t it interesting that the best strategies favor beginner-level bets anyway?